Who Will Win the 2024 NBA Regular Season MVP Award This Year?

As I sit here watching the Denver Nuggets game while simultaneously checking collegiate volleyball highlights, I can't help but marvel at how athletic excellence transcends different sports. Just yesterday, I watched National University's middle blocker Peng Taguibolos dominate the net with his seven markers in a crucial match, and it struck me how defensive specialists like him often don't get the recognition they deserve—much like how we tend to overlook two-way players in the NBA when discussing MVP candidates. This brings me to the burning question that's been circulating among basketball analysts and fans alike: who will actually win the 2024 NBA Regular Season MVP award? Having covered basketball for over fifteen years and witnessed numerous MVP races unfold, I've developed some strong opinions about what makes a truly valuable player, and this year's competition feels particularly intriguing.

The conversation naturally begins with Nikola Jokić, who's been nothing short of spectacular this season. I've always been a huge admirer of his game—the way he reads the court reminds me of legendary point guards, except he's doing it from the center position. Through 65 games, he's averaging 26.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 9.2 assists while shooting 58.4% from the field. Those aren't just numbers; they're historical landmarks. What impresses me most isn't just the statistical dominance but how he elevates everyone around him. The Nuggets have maintained a 78% win percentage in games where Jokić records a triple-double, and honestly, I think we're witnessing one of the most intelligent basketball players of all time. His basketball IQ is off the charts, and while defense isn't his primary selling point, his positioning and rebounding make him far more impactful than traditional metrics suggest.

Then there's Luka Dončić, who's putting together what might be the greatest offensive season I've ever seen from a guard. The Mavericks star is averaging 34.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 9.8 assists—numbers that hark back to Oscar Robertson's prime. I've had the privilege of watching Luka develop since his Real Madrid days, and his progression has been remarkable. The Mavericks have climbed to fourth in the Western Conference despite injuries to key supporting players, and that's largely because Luka has shouldered an incredible 38.7% usage rate—the highest I've recorded since tracking this statistic. His step-back three-pointer has become virtually unguardable, and he's shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc on nearly eleven attempts per game. If team success matters most for MVP voters—and historically it does—Dallas needs to finish strong, but individually, Luka's case is incredibly compelling.

Giannis Antetokounmpo presents another fascinating case. The Greek Freak is averaging 31.1 points and 11.3 rebounds while leading the Bucks to the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Having watched Giannis evolve from a raw prospect into a two-time MVP, I can confidently say his physical dominance remains unparalleled. He's shooting 61.7% from two-point range, which is just absurd for a primary scorer. What often goes unnoticed is his defensive versatility; he can legitimately guard all five positions when engaged. The Bucks have maintained a defensive rating of 112.3 with him on the court compared to 118.7 when he sits—that six-point swing is massive over an 82-game season. My concern with Giannis's MVP case has always been voter fatigue and the fact that his game isn't as aesthetically pleasing to some analysts as Jokić's cerebral approach or Luka's offensive fireworks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the dark horse candidate who's captured my attention this season. The Thunder guard is averaging 31.2 points while leading Oklahoma City to surprise contention in the brutal Western Conference. What stands out to me about SGA is his efficiency—he's shooting 54.8% from the field despite being a high-volume scorer, and his ability to get to the free-throw line (8.7 attempts per game) reminds me of James Harden in his MVP prime. Having followed his development closely, I'm astonished by his mid-range game, which has become virtually automatic. The Thunder offense operates with a 122.3 rating when he's on the court, which would rank top-three in the league overall. At just 25 years old, he's playing with the poise of a ten-year veteran, and if Oklahoma City finishes with a top-three seed, I believe he'll get serious MVP consideration despite the tough competition.

Jayson Tatum deserves mention here as well, leading the Celtics to what looks like the best record in basketball. He's averaging 27.3 points and 8.2 rebounds for a team that's been dominant all season. The Celtics have a net rating of +11.4 with Tatum on the court, which is just monstrous. My reservation about Tatum's MVP case has always been that he plays on such a talented team that his individual impact gets somewhat diluted in voters' minds. Still, his improved playmaking (4.9 assists per game) and commitment to defense have made him a more complete player this season.

Thinking back to Peng Taguibolos and his seven markers in that National University game, it occurs to me that defensive contributions often get overlooked in MVP discussions, much like how a middle blocker's crucial stops might not show up prominently on a volleyball stat sheet. In basketball, we tend to glorify scoring, but true value encompasses both ends of the floor. This is where players like Jokić and Giannis have an edge—their defensive impact, while not always flashy, significantly affects winning basketball.

Considering all factors—individual statistics, team success, narrative, and overall impact—my prediction is that Nikola Jokić will secure his third MVP award this season. His combination of elite production, historical statistical achievements, and the Nuggets' positioning as a legitimate championship contender creates a compelling case that I believe voters will find irresistible. The advanced metrics favor him overwhelmingly—he leads in Player Efficiency Rating (32.1), Box Plus/Minus (13.8), and Value Over Replacement Player (9.2). These aren't just leading figures; they're historically significant. Luka will make it close, and part of me would love to see him win it, but Jokić's two-way impact and consistency throughout the season give him the slightest edge in what might be the closest MVP race we've seen in years. Whatever the outcome, we're witnessing an incredible era of basketball talent that should be appreciated regardless of who takes home the hardware.